Cash Custody Network Analytics
Supervisory-grade tail-risk analytics for delegated banknote custody networks.
Central banks delegate custody. Accountability stays central. The analytics must close that gap.
The gap
Delegated custody needs explicit tail governance.
The page is not a product claim. It is a public research surface for how SAA frames supervisory analytics when cash custody is delegated but accountability remains central.
01
Buffer ≠ constraint.
Inventory adequacy is set as a buffer over expected demand – not as an explicit limit on the probability and severity of service failure.
02
Coupled shocks.
Physical events raise cash demand and degrade delivery capacity at the same time, for the same reason. Treating them as separable understates required reserves.
03
Delegated execution, central accountability.
Predictive automation in reallocation widens the control gap unless it operates under fail-closed supervisory discipline.
Architecture
Four layers, one supervisory control surface.
Illustrative numbers
Synthetic parameters show the direction of the problem.
The numbers are deliberately bounded: they demonstrate mechanics, not operator performance.
Stylised 12-node network: effective network size falls when delegated topology concentrates failure exposure.
Reserve independence assumption understates expected unserved demand when demand shock and delivery degradation are coupled.
Example
One event, two shocks.
A hurricane raises demand for physical cash and stops the trucks that would deliver it. Treating those as separate shocks understates failure severity in the synthetic example.
Twelve vaults. Effectively 10.2. Coupled stress returns the boundary, not a number the evidence cannot support.
Boundary. All results are illustrative, generated from stated synthetic parameters. No operator data are used. Operator-dependent quantities are identified and withheld, not estimated.
Founder proof
Written from inside cash operations, not from a whiteboard.
Written by the executive who ran a national cash and vault operation – 30+ centres, $50M+ daily – and kept it uninterrupted through the 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Oleksii Slieptsov, CFA · Founder, SAA
Working paper
From Buffer Heuristics to Governed Tail Risk
A supervisory analytics framework for delegated cash custody networks: topology, adequacy as a tail constraint, coupled stress and fail-closed supervision.
Supervisory briefing
Bring one delegated custody question.
SAA can walk through the synthetic model, the withheld-operator-data boundary and the supervisory evidence structure before any real operator data is discussed.