Module 02
Global Risk Intelligence
When the world changes, your risk posture changes.
Earthquakes, floods, blackouts, blockades. GRI maps physical events to financial exposure and tests every financial decision back against the physical twin. One governed report from 280 risk factors.
Overview
Physical events become financial exposure.
Global Risk Intelligence is built for committees that need to see what changed, where it travels next, and what the institution can claim with evidence.
See it before you feel it.
Physical events become financial exposure before they reach your P&L. Not after.
One report, 280 factors.
Eight risk domains are synthesized into a single committee-readable Unified Stress Report.
52 crises, replayable.
52 curated historical events, from Black Monday to COVID, with cascade effects and recovery timelines.
Honest by construction.
Every surface is labelled: kernel-validated, simulation-grade, diagnostic, or withheld. Nothing pretends.
Physical world to numbers
From map to balance sheet.
The page shows the workflow in investor language. Full source feeds, fixture details, screen captures and run packs stay in the evidence room or under NDA.
Watch a whole country.
Country posture, monitored cities, hazard breakdown and total exposure: one view from national level into city and infrastructure context.
Stress the city before nature does.
Photorealistic digital twins of real cities. Pick a scenario, set severity, run it and watch the flood, blackout or heatwave propagate through infrastructure.
Break one link, watch the chain.
Cascade analysis walks the dependency graph: which sectors, counterparties and cities are exposed within two hops of a failure.
From a flood to a balance sheet.
A real cascade, end to end: FEMA National Risk Index to power substation to people, hospitals, water and financial operations. Five stages, one screen.
Name the chain reaction.
Named causal chains with criticality scores: see the path from a fab disruption to an index correction before it happens. Illustrative scenarios, not forecasts.
52 crises, replayable
Historical shock becomes a committee-ready plan.
Every replay ends the same way: a loss distribution, a VaR figure, and a phased action plan for your operations team to review.
Nothing pretends
When there is no real feed, the screen says so.
Every surface carries its grade: kernel-validated, simulation-grade, diagnostic, or withheld. A posture with no real signal renders as WITHHELD, not as a confident number.
Status is enforced in the engine.
The boundary is not marketing language. If the evidence is not decision-grade, the output is held, labelled or routed to diagnostic use only.
Two branches
One report, two operating contexts.
Both branches feed the same Unified Stress Report. Deterministic risk math routes to the ARIN22 kernel; claims that depend on external data stay gated until the feed is live.
Physical economy.
Eight strategic domains: critical infrastructure, supply chain, structural health, geospatial intelligence, extreme risk, biosecurity, attack surface and climate adaptation.
Credit and regulatory.
External-data-gated: counterparty exposure, capital trajectory, sanctions screening and credit-sensitive fixed income. No capital certification claimed.
Pre-client maturity boundary
Pre-client. Public replays are internal runs. Scenarios are illustrative, not forecasts. Simulation layers depend on named third-party components where used, including NVIDIA PhysicsNeMo / Earth-2 stack when that route is engaged; no partnership or production attestation is implied. Latency and feed availability remain internal measurements until pilot evidence is live.
Source registry: 10 named families: USGS, NOAA, FEMA, Copernicus, CMIP6, World Bank, IMF, OFAC, WHO, CISA KEV.
Pilot entry
See your book on the map.
A pilot starts with your portfolio, one country and one scenario. It ends with a Unified Stress Report your committee can read.